posted by [identity profile] purplecthulhu.livejournal.com at 05:44pm on 10/08/2012
Given that Falcon Heavy is likely to be flying by then and assuming that Skylon is as well, that would give the mission quite a lot more flexibility.

I note the copyright on this film is 2009, so Musk's plans were not as solidified then, and with no actual demonstrated capability.
 
posted by [identity profile] nojay.livejournal.com at 05:55pm on 10/08/2012
What's the commercial market for Falcon Heavy? What are the payloads that need the Heavy and will pay for its development and production? If Falcon Heavy or Constellation is critical-path for such a project and they get canned due to funding cuts then the entire project goes down the tubes. The existing Atlas, Delta, Ariane, Falcon, Soyuz and Proton boosters are already in flight, just rubberstamp them out on a production line.

I've argued this before, that a Mars expedition or even a continuously-manned Moonbase project could be carried out with existing off-the-shelf hardware in 15-20 tonne chunks in just the way the Troy video describes. After all there's a 400-tonne manned spacecraft with between 6 and 12 crewmembers in orbit right now and no part of it was larger than 20 tonnes in one piece at launch. A Mars or Moonbase project done the same way would need a higher launch rate but there are more and more launchpads opening up in French Guinea, Texas and Russia to cope with the increased tempo.
 
posted by [identity profile] purplecthulhu.livejournal.com at 06:03pm on 10/08/2012
Intelsat has already got a Falcon Heavy launch contract - essential very big coms satellites in GEO.

Details

here

So yes - there seems to be commercial interest.

However, given that Falcon 9 was developed to successful launch for less than you can get a design study from Lockheed, and that Musk has lots of money salted away so that he can retire to Mars, there might not be a need a commercial interest.

ETA: links added
Edited Date: 2012-08-10 06:06 pm (UTC)

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